2026-Feb-06
Great Lakes Ice Cover Surges to 51% Amidst Arctic Blast
The Great Lakes are freezing over! Over the past two weeks, ice coverage has dramatically increased, with Lake Erie reaching a whopping 95% ice cover and the combined Great Lakes at 51% coverage. This rapid growth is thanks to the recent Arctic blast of below-normal temperatures affecting the eastern U.S. and the Great Lakes region.
Georgian Bay is also experiencing a significant surge in ice coverage, with levels well above the historical average. As of February 5, 2026, the bay is almost completely frozen over, but not quite at 100%. According to data from the Canadian Ice Service and NOAA, the ice coverage varies by region. Northern Georgian Bay has an estimated 90% coverage, with mostly thin and medium lake ice, while Southern Georgian Bay has around 80% coverage, with consolidated ice in sheltered areas like Severn Sound.
The combined Lake Huron/Georgian Bay system has a total ice coverage of approximately 75%, which is significantly higher than the average of 44% for this time of year. This thick layer of ice has also helped decreasing local snow squalls around the Bay.
To put this into perspective, the Great Lakes were at or below average ice levels at the start of 2026. But with the cold snap, ice coverage across the Great Lakes has jumped from 5% on January 14 to 51% on January 31. While this might seem extreme, it’s not unprecedented. According to James Kessler, a research physical scientist at NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, there have been five years (1977, 1981, 1994, 2014, and 2019) with similar or higher ice levels by February 1.
Maximum ice coverage is not typically expected until mid to late February, which is great news for ice fishing and those who love winter activities on the frozen Bay! If you are heading out to enjoy the ice, make sure to check ice conditions and follow local guidelines!
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